Congress Damages US Ties with Other G5+1 If It Rejects Nuclear Deal

Congress Damages US Ties with Other G5+1 If It Rejects Nuclear Deal
Tue Jul 14, 2015 12:37:51

A professor of American Studies at the University of Birmingham believes that Washington’s relations with the other G5+1 countries will be undermined if the U.S. Congress rejects a deal over Iran’s nuclear program.

“A rejection by Congress would be damaging to U.S. relations with other members of the G5+1 powers who have pursued this agreement,” Scott Lucas says in an exclusive interview with the Tehran Times.

Lucas also says he does not think “it would be helpful to U.S. relations with other countries in the Middle East” if Congress annuls the potential nuclear deal.

Following is the full text of the interview:

Q: Is it possible that the U.S. Congress revoke nuclear deal with Iran?

A: In my opinion, it will be difficult for the U.S. Congress to revoke a well-defined deal between Iran and the 5+1 powers.

Technically, it is almost certain that at least 67 of 100 Senators would have to reject the deal, overriding a veto by President Obama. I think that will be very difficult to do, as almost all Republicans would have to be joined by some Democrats in rejection of the deal.

Politically, I think it is significant that the Obama Administration has reached this point, despite the heated attempts — not only by members of Congress, but also by “think tanks”, lobby groups, and commentators — to prevent negotiations. Could anyone have honestly said two years ago that he/she expected we would be on brink of a deal in July 2015?

Q: What would be the consequences of annulling the deal by Congress?

A: A rejection by Congress would be damaging to U.S. relations with other members of the 5+1 powers who have pursued this agreement. It might help the U.S. positions with some — but not all — of those in Israeli politics. However, I do not think it would be helpful to U.S. relations with other countries in the Middle East, especially as we can expect increased U.S.-Iran conflict.

Moreover, if the U.S. Congress successfully revokes the deal, we are all in for a very bad time. Iranians will suffer harsher sanctions, and there will be a further rise in tension, not only over the nuclear issue but over regional issues from Syria to Yemen to Iraq to Israel/Palestine.

Q: Can a rejection of the agreement affect the Republicans’ presidential campaign?

A: I do not think a rejection by Congress would have a major effect on the Republican contest for the Presidency in 2016. I think the nominee will be decided by other issues.

There could be a slight benefit for Senators who are in the Republican race, such as Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz, over those who are not Senators such as Jeb Bush. However, I do not think any Republican will be helped in the presidential election by the rejection.

Q: If Iran and the 5+1 group agree on a final deal the UN Security Council must approve a new resolution to endorse it. What would be the legal implications of the resolution?

A: The relationship of the UN to the deal will be defined in detail by the agreement and the annexes — this has been one of the topics which has meant the talks in Vienna have worked for so long on final text.

I would expect a Dispute Resolutions Committee, with Iran and the 5+1 powers who are on the Security Council, to be set up to consider issues such as the compliance with the terms of the deal and the re-imposition of any sanctions (“snap-back”) if any country is found in violation.

string(1987) "[{"id":"1720274","sort":"3380617","contenttypeid":"21","pic":"/2015/07/14/alalam_635724732617372588_25f_4x3.jpg","title":"Iranian Nuclear Negotiators Safeguard Nation’s Principles"} ,{"id":"1720260","sort":"3380618","contenttypeid":"21","pic":"/2015/07/14/alalam_635724716564097374_25f_4x3.jpg","title":"Iran, Major Powers Strike Nuclear Deal: Diplomat"} ,{"id":"1720232","sort":"3380619","contenttypeid":"21","pic":"/2015/07/14/alalam_635724699428794015_25f_4x3.jpg","title":"Final Statement on Nuclear Deal to be Read by Tuesday Noon: IRNA"} ,{"id":"1720230","sort":"3380620","contenttypeid":"21","pic":"/2015/07/14/alalam_635724696675169960_25f_4x3.jpg","title":"Rouhani: Nuclear Deal Shows Diplomacy’s Victory over Coercion"} ,{"id":"1720224","sort":"3380621","contenttypeid":"21","pic":"/2015/07/14/alalam_635724688154007403_25f_4x3.jpg","title":"Reuters: Iran, G5+1 Reach Historic Nuclear Deal"} ,{"id":"1720007","sort":"3380622","contenttypeid":"21","pic":"/2015/07/13/alalam_635724054426182617_25f_4x3.jpg","title":"Nuclear Consultations are going on at Coburg Hotel in Vienna"} ,{"id":"1719913","sort":"3380623","contenttypeid":"21","pic":"/2015/07/13/alalam_635723907984379431_25f_4x3.jpg","title":"Conditions 'in Place' for Iran Nuclear Deal: China"} ,{"id":"1719779","sort":"3380624","contenttypeid":"21","pic":"/2015/07/12/alalam_635723387715740127_25f_4x3.jpg","title":"Zarif Says Nuclear Talks to Continue Monday"} ,{"id":"1719770","sort":"3380625","contenttypeid":"21","pic":"/2015/07/12/alalam_635723369961153870_25f_4x3.jpg","title":"Rouhani Gives Executive Order to Safeguard Nuclear Rights"} ,{"id":"1719688","sort":"3380626","contenttypeid":"21","pic":"/2015/07/12/alalam_635723175852972529_25f_4x3.jpg","title":"Main Points of Iran-Six Powers Nuclear Deal Disclosed"} ,{"id":"1719663","sort":"3380627","contenttypeid":"21","pic":"/2015/07/12/alalam_635723145820269465_25f_4x3.jpg","title":"Iran Parliament Praise Nuclear Negotiators' Resistance against G5+1"} ]"