Turkey itself goes to the polls on Aug. 10 to choose between Erdogan and two opposition candidates. But expatriates – in the past allowed to vote only at Turkey’s borders – are casting their ballots over the next four days.

Erdogan, who has dominated Turkish politics for more than a decade but is barred by party rules from standing for a fourth term as prime minister, has said the direct nature of the vote will imbue the presidency with far greater clout.

Polls suggest he will win the simple majority needed in the first round. Two surveys last month put him on 55-56 percent, a 20-point lead over his nearest rival, Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu. The diaspora vote will count as never before.

Some 2.8 million Turks abroad are eligible to vote, around 1.4 million of them in Germany, a number equivalent to the electorate of Turkey’s fifth largest city, Adana. One million voters are based elsewhere in Europe, with smaller numbers in the United States, Asia, Africa and Oceania.

“It is hugely important for me to be able to vote in this election, and I want to see Erdogan, who has done so much for our country, continue,” said Necrettin Koc, 40, who moved to Germany as a child and works as a builder in Berlin.

“I live in Germany, but I’m a Turkish citizen and care deeply about what happens there. I’m convinced that Erdogan will win in the first round,” he said, speaking outside the imposing Berlin stadium built for the 1936 Olympics Thursday.

Turks comprise Germany’s biggest minority as a result of decades of labor migration that began in 1961, which saw many young workers coming from some of Turkey’s poorest and most remote areas – conservative heartlands where Erdogan’s Islamist-rooted politics draws its strongest support.

Today the German diaspora reflects Turkey’s diverse political landscape, with conservative groups, left-wing trade unionists, Kurds and secularists all represented.

Erdogan visited the western German city of Cologne in May, courting the diaspora vote at a rally of 16,000 supporters, although an estimated 45,000 protested against him.

Erdogan enjoys huge popularity among a pious, conservative swathe of the Turkish population.

Erdogan’s grassroots supporters want the man who has boosted their wealth, opportunities and visibility in a constitutionally secular society to continue shaping Turkey. Opponents fear that he will only grow more autocratic, particularly if he establishes the executive presidency he ultimately covets.

BA/BA